Pada penutupan perdagangan hari Jumat (17/5), IHSG naik sebanyak 67,005 poin (1,32%) ke level 5145,683. Ada sebanyak 175 saham yang naik, 112 saham yang mengalami koreksi, dan 87 saham yang tidak bergerak. Total perdagangan hari ini sebanyak Rp 6,188 triliun. LQ45 naik 13,956 poin (1,63%) ke level 870,028. Sektor –sektor perdagangan di zona hijau adalah sektor consumer goods naik 5,22%, sektor pertambangan naik 2,78%, dan sektor perdagangan naik 2,55%. Sektor perdagangan di sektor merah adalah sektor aneka industri turun 0,10%. Foreign nett buy sebesar Rp 22,12 miliar. Indeks Komposit Shanghai menanjak 1,38%. Indeks Straits Times menipis 0,17%. Indeks Nikkei menguat 0,67%. Indeks Hang Seng dan Indeks Kospi tutup.

Today's View

Pada perdagangan hari Senin (20/5), secara teknikal indeks diperkirakan akan bergerak mix melemah di kisaran 5100 – 5180. Pada penutupan hari Jumat IHSG kembali mencapai rekor tertingginya di 5145. Pencapaian tersebut dapat memberikan sentiment bagi para investor untuk melakukan aksi ambil untung pada perdagangan IHSG hari ini. Saham-saham yang perlu diperhatikan adalah INAF,PTBA, MAPI, HRUM.

PT Pelayaran Tempur Emas Tbk (TMAS) menargetkan proses peleburan anak usaha di bidang bongkar muat rampung dalam tahun 2013. Proses merger ini masih dalam tahap proses perizinan otoritas pasar modal yang melibatkan dua anak usahanya, PT Bongkar Muat Olah Jasa Trisari Andal dan PT Escorindo Stevedoring. Perusahaan akan rights issue apabila ada investor baru yang tertarik menjadi pemilik saham. (Positive) Source: Kontan

“Boosting Sales Volume to Support the Growth”

Ticker: PTBA.IJ
Recommendation: HOLD
Analyst: James Wahjudi
Current Price (March 16th, 2012): IDR 20,100
Target Price 2012: IDR 22,000

PE2012E: 13x
PE2013F: 11x

EPS2011A: IDR 1,340
EPS2012E: IDR 1,647
EPS2013F: IDR 1,964

The Production and Financial Result in 2011
The company reported its 2011 full year financial result by booked a net profit of IDR 3.09 trillion, increased by 54% yoy. The increase in net profit was caused by a higher sales volume, a higher Average Selling Price (ASP), and a lower Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) margin. The sales volume in 2011 was 13.5 Mt, increased by 4% yoy, while the ASP was increased by 24% yoy to IDR 755,220 for domestic selling and by 50% yoy to USD 101.04 for export selling. The COGS margin was down by 3.74% yoy. The EPS grew by 53.7% yoy.

The Business Outlook in 2012
We project the sales volume target to reach 17.6 Mt (increase by 30% yoy) supported by the commitment of PT KAI to transport 15.6 Mt this year to Tarahan Port in Bandar Lampung and Kertapati Pier in Palembang. Total sales revenue is projected to increase by 39% yoy to IDR 14.7 trillion while EPS is expected to grow by 23% yoy to IDR 1,647 this year.

The 2x620 MW Power Plant in Central Banko
In Dec 2011, the consortium of PTBA (45%) and CHD (55%) from China has won a project tender to build a mine-mouth power plant with capacity of 2x620 MW in Central Banko, South Sumatera. The investment cost is projected around USD 1.59 billion. PTBA agreed to deliver 5.4 Mt coal per annum to this power plant.

The Risks
The major risks are the high volatility of coal price, the high level of rainfall volume, and high volatility of foreign exchange currency.

Upgrading the Valuation
We calculate the value of the company by using the DCF method. By using the WACC at 16.3% and long-term growth rate of 3%, the calculation of target price is upgraded from IDR 20,200 in the previous report to IDR 22,000. This new target price reflects PE at 13x. The stock is currently trading at IDR 20,100. Therefore, we recommend a HOLD on the stock with a 9.5% potential upside.

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