Pada penutupan perdagangan hari Jumat (17/5), IHSG naik sebanyak 67,005 poin (1,32%) ke level 5145,683. Ada sebanyak 175 saham yang naik, 112 saham yang mengalami koreksi, dan 87 saham yang tidak bergerak. Total perdagangan hari ini sebanyak Rp 6,188 triliun. LQ45 naik 13,956 poin (1,63%) ke level 870,028. Sektor –sektor perdagangan di zona hijau adalah sektor consumer goods naik 5,22%, sektor pertambangan naik 2,78%, dan sektor perdagangan naik 2,55%. Sektor perdagangan di sektor merah adalah sektor aneka industri turun 0,10%. Foreign nett buy sebesar Rp 22,12 miliar. Indeks Komposit Shanghai menanjak 1,38%. Indeks Straits Times menipis 0,17%. Indeks Nikkei menguat 0,67%. Indeks Hang Seng dan Indeks Kospi tutup.

Today's View

Pada perdagangan hari Senin (20/5), secara teknikal indeks diperkirakan akan bergerak mix melemah di kisaran 5100 – 5180. Pada penutupan hari Jumat IHSG kembali mencapai rekor tertingginya di 5145. Pencapaian tersebut dapat memberikan sentiment bagi para investor untuk melakukan aksi ambil untung pada perdagangan IHSG hari ini. Saham-saham yang perlu diperhatikan adalah INAF,PTBA, MAPI, HRUM.

PT Pelayaran Tempur Emas Tbk (TMAS) menargetkan proses peleburan anak usaha di bidang bongkar muat rampung dalam tahun 2013. Proses merger ini masih dalam tahap proses perizinan otoritas pasar modal yang melibatkan dua anak usahanya, PT Bongkar Muat Olah Jasa Trisari Andal dan PT Escorindo Stevedoring. Perusahaan akan rights issue apabila ada investor baru yang tertarik menjadi pemilik saham. (Positive) Source: Kontan

“ Declining Sales of 2W components will be offset by margin expansion due to falling commodity prices."

Ticker: AUTO.IJ
Recommendation: BUY
ANALYST: WIBOWO NG
PE 2012E: 13.0x
PE 2013F: 11.4x
EPS 2012E: IDR 293
EPS 2014E: IDR 332
We maintained our BUY rating on PT Astra Otoparts Tbk
The company is currently negotiating with car manufacturers for price increase of its OEM products. Rising labor costs (10% of COGS, +39%yoy) and raw materials (52% of COGS, +25.5%yoy) which are not accompanied by reasonable price increase pose serious threat to its profitability and as such it has to be addressed immediately. We estimate that by 2Q12 or mid 3Q12, the negotiation should have concluded and should there be no reasonable price increase, we will put it under review for potential downgrade.

Capital Gains on sale of PT EDS Manufacturing
We estimate AUTO will record capital gain of IDR21bn, net of tax, or around IDR5.2 per share from its sale of 5% stake in PT EDS Manufacturing for USD3.57mn (IDR32.9bn). This will boost the 2012EPS slightly and the proceeds from the sale can be used to fund its planned capex or service its debt obligations.

Margin Compression continued
Gross margin compression continued to last—overall gross margin fell to 16.0% (-78bps qoq; -154bps yoy); EBITDA margin fell to 8.23% (-259bps qoq; +55bps yoy). Automotive Component Manufacturing Division contributed significant fall in margin (1Q12 gross margin at 13.5%; -289 bps yoy before elimination) while gross margin of trading division increased slightly to 16.33% (+17bps yoy). The firm’s lack of bargaining power to demand for price increase, rising raw materials and labor costs led to severe margin compression despite efficiency steps undertook by the firms. According to the firm, ASP for OEM remained relatively stagnant after it acceded to the request from car manufacturers to reduce its ASP by the minimum of 3.5% to help them tide over the rising cost incurred from Thailand’s floods and Japanese tsunami. Consequently, we can infer that rising automotive manufacturing revenue (+24.3% yoy) is primarily due to rising sales volume. As of publication, the firm is negotiating for price increase with car manufacturers and we are optimistic that there is high probability they will acquiesce considering the supply chain disruptions of certain materials arose from Thailand’s flood which pushed procuring costs to all time high has abated. Should it be successful, we expect significant margin expansion as raw materials prices are declining significantly. This increase in ASP will compensate the expected decline in sales volume due to lower demand for automobiles components amidst uncertainty in the global markets and implementation of down payment rules on 2W and 4W vehicles potentially leading to temporary fall in domestic demand for low-cost 2W and 4W vehicles.

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