Pada penutupan perdagangan hari Kamis (23/5), IHSG turun sebanyak 85,596 poin (-1,66%) ke level 5121,403. Ada sebanyak 52 saham yang naik, 251 saham yang mengalami koreksi, dan 66 saham yang tidak bergerak. Total perdagangan hari ini sebanyak Rp 9,825 triliun. LQ45 turun 15,305 poin (1,74%) ke level 864,873. Sektor-sektor perdagangan di zona merah adalah sektor pertambangan turun 3,38%, sektor konstruksi turun 2,66%, dan sektor perdagangan turun 2,39%. Foreign nett sell sebesar Rp 720,56 miliar. Indeks Komposit Shanghai melemah 1,16%. Indeks Straits Times merosot 1,82%%. Indeks Nikkei jatuh 7,32%. Indeks Hang Seng koreksi 2,54%.

Today's View

Pada perdagangan hari Jumat (24/5), secara teknikal indeks diperkirakan akan bergerak bergerak melemah di kisaran 5075-5140. Penurunan market diperkirakan akan berlanjut hari ini setelah ekonomi regional mengalami kontraksi ditandai oleh penurunan aktivitas manufaktur di China di bawah 50 yang menandakan kontraksi. Selain itu, pernyataan The Fed yang akan menurunkan jumlah stimulus di bulan mendatang juga turut memberikan sentimen negatif terhadap indeks. Data initial jobless claims AS yang turun menjadi 345 ribu serta peningkatan data House Price Index dan New Home Sales dari AS turut memberikan sentimen terhadap indeks. Saham-saham yang perlu diperhatikan adalah UNVR. ADHI, TRIS, AUTO.

PT Agung Podomoro Land Tbk (APLN) melaksanakan penawaran umum berkelanjutan (PUB) obligasi I tahap I senilai Rp 1,2 triliun dari total PUB I perusahaan yang mencapai Rp 2,5 triliun. PUB I tahap I tersebut bertenor lima tahun dengan kupon berkisar 8,25-9,25%. PT Pemeringkat Efek Indonesia (Pefindo) menetapkan peringkat A untuk obligasi tersebut. Masa penawaran awal (Book Building) berlangsung pada 23 Mei hingga 5 Juni 2013. 42% dana hasil emisi obligasi. (Neutral) Source: Investor Daily

"PT Astra Otoparts Tbk"

"We reduced our call on AUTO to HOLD based on its limited upside potential while we maintained our rolling 12-month target price at IDR 3,800 (upside potential of 4.8%). AUTO continued to invest via Joint-ventures with renowned overseas automotive component manufacturers to boosts its products portfolio. Upside catalysts include AUTO’s success in negotiation for better pricings with its OEM clients which will boost its margin for manufacturing division up. We should expect the preliminary results from the negotiation in 3Q2012."

Ticker: AUTO.IJ
ANALYST: Wibowo Ng
Current Price (Aug 3rd, 2012): IDR 3,650
Target Price 2012: IDR 3,800
PE 2012F: 13.0x
PE 2013F: 11.4x
2012 EPS: IDR 293
2013 EPS: IDR 332
1H2012 results came out mixed with revenue growth of 16.8% slightly below our expectation of 17.8% for full year 2012 but overall operating margin has improved as the firm managed to boost its efficiency in operating expense.

Trading division
Trading division recorded a drop of 3.0% qoq (+14.7% yoy) in revenue but gross margin increased to 18.5% (+218bps qoq; +221bps yoy) with EBIT margin at 9.1% (+164bps qoq; +151bps yoy) due to less spending on advertising and promotions (-50.3% yoy). EBITDA margin increased to 9.3% in 2Q2012 (+165bps qoq; +177bps yoy). Overall, margin increment helped to offset the decline in revenue.

Manufacturing Division
Manufacturing division registered a 20.2% increase in revenue yoy in 2Q2012 but gross margin continued to be under pressure as the firm is still unable to raise its ASP (see reports dated 02 July 2012). We expect the firm to reach some form of negotiation that allows it to increase its ASP slightly to compensate it for rising raw materials (+17.9% yoy; 1H2012 raw materials as % of sales: 42.1% vs 41.7% in 1H2011) and labor costs (+19.9% yoy; 1H2012 labor costs as % of sales: 8.7% vs 8.5% in 1H2011). Gross margin declined to 12.2% in 2Q2012 (-128bps qoq) but EBIT margin only suffered slightly to 7.68% (-23bps qoq) due to efficiency program that the firm embark to strife to boost bottom-line growth amidst declining growth.

Overall
The firm has embarked on some form of efficiency to reduce operating costs which we expect to see more in the coming quarters and the ongoing negotiation with automotive manufacturers, if successful, will further lift the firm’s margin up. Despite this, we maintain our valuation at IDR 3,800 and we will update immediately once the outcome of negotiation has been confirmed. Key risks include the impact of declining domestic 2W and 4W sales, if not offset by exports, will result in decline in productions and thus demands for OEM. Inflation is expected to remain tamed.

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