Pada penutupan perdagangan hari Selasa (21/5), IHSG turun sebanyak 26,217 poin (-0,50%) ke level 5188,759. Ada sebanyak 95 saham yang naik, 157 saham yang mengalami koreksi, dan 125 saham yang tidak bergerak. Total perdagangan hari ini sebanyak Rp 7,343 triliun. LQ45 turun 5,149 poin (0,58%) ke level 878,985. Sektor –sektor perdagangan di zona hijau adalah sektor agrikultur naik 0,44%, sektor perdagangan naik 0,14%, dan sektor keuangan naik 0,01%. Sektor-sektor perdagangan di zona merah adalah sektor consumer goods turun 1,69%, sektor manufaktur turun 1,08%, dan sektor aneka industri turun 0,80%. Foreign nett buy sebesar Rp 1,64 miliar. Indeks Komposit Shanghai bertambah 0,22%. Indeks Straits Times merosot 0,30%. Indeks Nikkei melejit 0,13%. Indeks Hang Seng koreksi 0,54%.

Today's View

Pada perdagangan hari Rabu (22/5), secara teknikal indeks diperkirakan akan bergerak mixed dengan kecenderungan menguat di kisaran 5145 - 5215. Hasil pertemuan BOJ yang membahas kebijakan moneter Jepang akan diumumkan. Disamping itu Gubernur the Fed juga akan memberikan testimoni mengenai outlook ekonomi dan kebijakan moneter AS. Pengumuman tersebut dapat memberikan stimulus terhadap pergerakan index hari ini. Saham-saham yang perlu diperhatikan adalah ADHI, BKSL, AALI, KIJA.

PT Wintermar Offshore Marine Tbk (WIMS) berencana akan melakukan pembelian saham kembali (Buyback) sebanyak 190 juta saham perusahaan setara dengan 5,2% dari total jumlah modal yang ditempatkan. Dana yang dialokasikan sebesar US$ 10,5juta yang berasal dari saldo laba 2012, yang bertotal US$ 50,28 juta. Buyback akan dilakukan secara bertahap selama 18 bulan dengan periode 20 Juni 2013 sampai 19 December 2014 terhitung sejak perusahaan memperoleh persetujuan pemegang saham dalam rapat umum pada tanggal 20 Juni 2013. Apabila disetujui pelaksanaan Buyback, jumlah asset dan ekuitas perusahaan akan berkurang menjadi masing-masing US$ 328,47juta (dari US$ 338,97 juta) dan US$ 166,73 juta (dari US$ 177,44 juta). (Positive) Source: Bisnis Indonesia

"Loan growth is expected to recover"

Ticker: BBRI.IJ
Recommendation: ACCUMULATE
ANALYST: JANSEN KUSTIANTO
Current Price (April 11th, 2012): IDR 6,900
Target Price 2012: IDR 7,500
PE2011A: 11.3X PE2012E: 10.1X
EPS 2011A: IDR 612
EPS 2012E: IDR 683

BRI’s ability to sustain its net interest margin (NIM), improvement in asset quality which results in lower provision and its operating efficiency, contributed to its strong bottom line growth of 31.9% in FY 2011 YoY, even though FY 2011 credit grew only by 14.9% YoY. BRI’s strong bottom line result beats both our FY2011 net profit estimate by 13.5% and also consensus.

Micro segment is still BRI main business
Slower loan growth was evident in 2011 due to the bank’s strategy to consolidate its portfolio to improve asset quality and its revitalization program of its infrastructure and network to gear for future growth. Micro segment (+19.6% YoY) and corporate segment (+28.3% YoY)- 57.3% driven by SOEs’ loan, are the major driver of loan growth. Micro lending is still BRI main business as it composes 31.8% of BRI total loan portfolio. The growth in SOEs’ loans and asset consolidation helped improved BRI’s loan quality reflected by declining NPL from 2.8 in 2010 to 2.3 in 2011.

Loan growth to recover
We expect BRI loan growth to recover. We forecast that loan will grow by 20.3% CAGR by 2014. Our forecast is supported by the expectation of strong GDP growth, which will push lending higher. The revitalization program rolled in 2011, along with the continue expansion of BRI outlets, especially its Teras outlet (1,304 units as of 2011) which will reach new areas and smaller borrowers.

Risk of inflation & low interest rate environment
Threat of higher inflation due to the possibility of the government increasing subsidized fuel price still remains, however, it should not raise excessive concern, as loan made up 69% of BRI earnings asset, whereas only 10.2% is made up of securities (including government recap bonds), and it has almost equal mix of fixed and variable rate. On the other hand, escalated competition and low interest rate environment will put pressure on BRI’s margin. We forecast that BRI’s NIM will decline further in 2012 to 8.6% and is expected to remain within 8.5%-9% range for the next few years. BRI’s business mix which focuses on micro segment should provide support to its NIM.

Upgrading our valuation to IDR 7,500
As a result of our change in forecast for BRI’s loan growth and NIM, we have updated our valuation for BRI to IDR 7,500. At this price, BRI will be trading at 3x 2012F P/B multiple, which is justified due to BRI’s consistent high ROE, averaging 31.1% for the past 5 years.

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